Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Management, feeding, production, reproduction and udder health on organic and conventional Swiss dairy farms

Organic dairy farms (OP; n=60) and conventional dairy farms (integrated production, IP; n=60), matched in size, location, and agricultural zone (altitude), were studied for possible differences in management, feeding, production, reproduction and udder health. OP and IP farms were similar in size (17.7 and 16.9 ha), milk quota (65900 and 70,000 kg/year), cow number (14 and 15), cow age (5.3 and 5.2 years), housing of cows of the Simmental x Red Holstein or Holstein breeds (87 and 75%; 45 and 60%), but differed significantly with respect to loose housing systems (18 and 7%), outside paddocks (98 and 75%), energy-corrected 305-d milk yield (5,695 and 6,059 kg), milk protein content (31.8 and 32.7 g/kg), use of bucket milking systems (73 and 33%), observance of regular (12-h) milking intervals (47 and 68%), routine application of the California-Mastitis-Test (10 and 28%), teat dipping after milking (25 and 43%) and blanket dry cow treatments (0 and 45%). Milk somatic cell counts on OP and IP farms (119 000 and 117,000/mL) and reproduction data were similar and there were no significant differences between OP and IP farms as concerns available feeds, planning and management of feeding. Alternative veterinary treatments were used more often on OP than IP farms (55 and 17%). Main causes for cow replacements on OP and IP farms were fertility disorders (both 45%), age (40 and 42%), sale (30 and 37%) and udder health (35 and 13%).Between OP and IP Swiss dairy farms thus relatively few larger differences were found.

[Antirheumatic therapy and reproduction. The influence on fertility, pregnancy and breast feeding]

Antirheumatic drugs can have a negative effect on reproduction in both men and women. Possible negative effects are impairment of fertility, harmful effects on the fetus and adverse effects on the breastfed child. In women non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAID) and cyclophosphamide can impair fertility. In men infertility can result from the use of salazopyrine and cyclophosphamide. A desire for children should be taken into account before the start of disease modifying drugs (DMARD). Treatment with NSAID is possible at some stages of pregnancy as well as during lactation. A limited number of DMARD is compatible with pregnancy and is presented. Cytostatic drugs and leflunomide must be prophylactically withdrawn before a planned pregnancy. TNF alpha antagonists should be discontinued at the start of pregnancy. Safe birth control must be practised during therapy with drugs that are gonadotoxic or teratogenic. Treatment with immunosuppressive drugs during lactation is limited because of insufficient documentation of safety for the breastfed child.

Levocetirizine is an effective treatment in patients suffering from chronic idiopathic urticaria: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel, multicenter study

BACKGROUND: Chronic idiopathic urticaria (CIU) is defined by the almost daily presence of urticaria for at least 6 weeks without an identifiable cause. Symptoms include short-lived wheals, itching, and erythema. CIU impedes significantly a patient's quality of life (QoL). Levocetirizine is an antihistamine from the latest generation approved for CIU. AIM: To investigate the efficacy of levocetirizine, 5 mg, and placebo for the symptoms and signs of CIU, as well as for the QoL and productivity. METHODS: The primary criteria of evaluation were the pruritus severity scores over 1 week of treatment and over 4 weeks. The QoL was assessed via the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI). RESULTS: Baseline pruritus severity scores were comparable in the two treatment groups (2.06+/-0.58). After 1 week, levocetirizine was superior to placebo and demonstrated a considerable efficacy (difference=0.78, P<0.001). This efficacy was maintained over the entire study period (4 weeks, P<0.001). The number and size of wheals were considerably reduced compared with placebo over 1 week and over the total treatment period (P effective treatment for CIU, characterized not only by a rapid and sustained response, but also by an important improvement in QoL.

Interference of endocrine disrupting chemicals with aromatase CYP19 expression or activity, and consequences for reproduction of teleost fish

Many natural and synthetic compounds present in the environment exert a number of adverse effects on the exposed organisms, leading to endocrine disruption, for which they were termed endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). A decrease in reproduction success is one of the most well-documented signs of endocrine disruption in fish. Estrogens are steroid hormones involved in the control of important reproduction-related processes, including sexual differentiation, maturation and a variety of others. Careful spatial and temporal balance of estrogens in the body is crucial for proper functioning. At the final step of estrogen biosynthesis, cytochrome P450 aromatase, encoded by the cyp19 gene, converts androgens into estrogens. Modulation of aromatase CYP19 expression and function can dramatically alter the rate of estrogen production, disturbing the local and systemic levels of estrogens. In the present review, the current progress in CYP19 characterization in teleost fish is summarized and the potential of several classes of EDCs to interfere with CYP19 expression and activity is discussed. Two cyp19 genes are present in most teleosts, cyp19a and cyp19b, primarily expressed in the ovary and brain, respectively. Both aromatase CYP19 isoforms are involved in the sexual differentiation and regulation of the reproductive cycle and male reproductive behavior in diverse teleost species. Alteration of aromatase CYP19 expression and/or activity, be it upregulation or downregulation, may lead to diverse disturbances of the above mentioned processes. Prediction of multiple transcriptional regulatory elements in the promoters of teleost cyp19 genes suggests the possibility for several EDC classes to affect cyp19 expression on the transcriptional level. These sites include cAMP responsive elements, a steroidogenic factor 1/adrenal 4 binding protein site, an estrogen-responsive element (ERE), half-EREs, dioxin-responsive elements, and elements related to diverse other nuclear receptors (peroxisome proliferator activated receptor, retinoid X receptor, retinoic acid receptor). Certain compounds including phytoestrogens, xenoestrogens, fungicides and organotins may modulate aromatase CYP19 activity on the post-transcriptional level. As is shown in this review, diverse EDCs may affect the expression and/or activity of aromatase cyp19 genes through a variety of mechanisms, many of which need further characterization in order to improve the prediction of risks posed by a contaminated environment to teleost fish population.

Heterotic T-folds with a small number of neutral moduli

We discuss non-geometric supersymmetric heterotic string models in D=4, in the framework of the free fermionic construction. We perform a systematic scan of models with four a priori left-right asymmetric Z2 projections and shifts. We analyze some 220 models, identifying 18 inequivalent classes and addressing variants generated by discrete torsions. They do not contain geometrical or trivial neutral moduli, apart from the dilaton. However, we show the existence of flat directions in the form of exactly marginal deformations and identify patterns of symmetry breaking where product gauge groups, realized at level one, are broken to their diagonal at higher level. We also describe an “inverse Gepner map” from Heterotic to Type II models that could be used, in certain non geometric settings, to define “effective” topological invariants.

Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation: an effective treatment for refractory non-neurogenic overactive bladder syndrome?

PURPOSE: To assess the effect of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) for treating refractory overactive bladder syndrome (OAB). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of 42 patients treated with TENS for refractory OAB was prospectively investigated at an academic tertiary referral centre. Effects were evaluated using bladder diary for at least 48 h and satisfaction assessment at baseline, after 12 weeks of TENS treatment, and at the last known follow-up. Adverse events related to TENS were also assessed. RESULTS: Mean age of the 42 patients (25 women, 17 men) was 48 years (range, 18-76). TENS was successful following 12 weeks of treatment in 21 (50 %) patients, and the positive effect was sustained during a mean follow-up of 21 months (range, 6-83 months) in 18 patients. Following 12 weeks of TENS treatment, mean number of voids per 24 h decreased significantly from 15 to 11 (p < 0.001) and mean voided volume increased significantly from 160 to 230 mL (p < 0.001). In addition, TENS completely restored continence in 7 (39 %) of the 18 incontinent patients. Before TENS, all 42 patients were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied; following 12 weeks of TENS treatment, 21 (50 %) patients felt satisfied or very satisfied (p < 0.001). No adverse events related to TENS were noted. CONCLUSIONS: TENS seems to be an effective and safe treatment for refractory OAB warranting randomized, placebo-controlled trials.

Thiazolides, a Novel Class of Anti-Infective Drugs, Effective Against Viruses, Bacteria, Intracellular and Extracellular Protozoan Parasites and Proliferating Mammalian Cells

The thiazolide nitazoxanide (2-acetolyloxy-N-(5-nitro 2-thiazolyl) benzamide; NTZ) is composed of a nitrothiazole- ring and a salicylic acid moiety, which are linked together through an amide bond. NTZ exhibits a broad spectrum of activities against a wide range of helminths, protozoa, enteric bacteria, and viruses infecting animals and humans. Since the first synthesis of the drug, a number of derivatives of NTZ have been produced, which are collectively named thiazolides. These are modified versions of NTZ, which include the replacement of the nitro group with bromo-, chloro-, or other functional groups, and the differential positioning of methyl- and methoxy-groups on the salicylate ring. The presence of a nitro group seems to be the prerequisite for activities against anaerobic or microaerophilic parasites and bacteria. Intracellular parasites and viruses, however, are susceptible to non-nitro-thiazolides with equal or higher effectiveness. Moreover, nitro- and bromo-thiazolides are effective against proliferating mammalian cells. Biochemical and genetic approaches have allowed the identification of respective targets and the molecular basis of resistance formation. Collectively, these studies strongly suggest that NTZ and other thiazolides exhibit multiple mechanisms of action. In microaerophilic bacteria and parasites, the reduction of the nitro group into a toxic intermediate turns out to be the key factor. In proliferating mammalian cells, however, bromo- and nitro-thiazolides trigger apoptosis, which may also explain their activities against intracellular pathogens. The mode of action against helminths may be similar to mammalian cells but has still not been elucidated.

Is mental practice an effective adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke?

Stroke is one of the most common conditions requiring rehabilitation, and its motor impairments are a major cause of permanent disability. Hemiparesis is observed by 80% of the patients after acute stroke. Neuroimaging studies showed that real and imagined movements have similarities regarding brain activation, supplying evidence that those similarities are based on the same process. Within this context, the combination of MP with physical and occupational therapy appears to be a natural complement based on neurorehabilitation concepts. Our study seeks to investigate if MP for stroke rehabilitation of upper limbs is an effective adjunct therapy. PubMed (Medline), ISI knowledge (Institute for Scientific Information) and SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library) were terminated on 20 February 2015. Data were collected on variables as follows: sample size, type of supervision, configuration of mental practice, setting the physical practice (intensity, number of sets and repetitions, duration of contractions, rest interval between sets, weekly and total duration), measures of sensorimotor deficits used in the main studies and significant results. Random effects models were used that take into account the variance within and between studies. Seven articles were selected. As there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (MP vs Control), showed a – 0.6 (95% CI: –1.27 to 0.04), for upper limb motor restoration after stroke. The present meta-analysis concluded that MP is not effective as adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke.

Neospora caninum calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 is an effective drug target for neosporosis therapy.

Despite the enormous economic importance of Neospora caninum related veterinary diseases, the number of effective therapeutic agents is relatively small. Development of new therapeutic strategies to combat the economic impact of neosporosis remains an important scientific endeavor. This study demonstrates molecular, structural and phenotypic evidence that N. caninum calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 (NcCDPK1) is a promising molecular target for neosporosis drug development. Recombinant NcCDPK1 was expressed, purified and screened against a select group of bumped kinase inhibitors (BKIs) previously shown to have low IC50s against Toxoplasma gondii CDPK1 and T. gondii tachyzoites. NcCDPK1 was inhibited by low concentrations of BKIs. The three-dimensional structure of NcCDPK1 in complex with BKIs was studied crystallographically. The BKI-NcCDPK1 structures demonstrated the structural basis for potency and selectivity. Calcium-dependent conformational changes in solution as characterized by small-angle X-ray scattering are consistent with previous structures in low Calcium-state but different in the Calcium-bound active state than predicted by X-ray crystallography. BKIs effectively inhibited N. caninum tachyzoite proliferation in vitro. Electron microscopic analysis of N. caninum cells revealed ultra-structural changes in the presence of BKI compound 1294. BKI compound 1294 interfered with an early step in Neospora tachyzoite host cell invasion and egress. Prolonged incubation in the presence of 1294 interfered produced observable interference with viability and replication. Oral dosing of BKI compound 1294 at 50 mg/kg for 5 days in established murine neosporosis resulted in a 10-fold reduced cerebral parasite burden compared to untreated control. Further experiments are needed to determine the PK, optimal dosage, and duration for effective treatment in cattle and dogs, but these data demonstrate proof-of-concept for BKIs, and 1294 specifically, for therapy of bovine and canine neosporosis.